September Residential Highlights

Sales activity in the Portland Metro area showed improvements in closed and pending sales this September compared with September 2010, and the inventory level remained much lower than the same month in 2010. Closed sales grew 13.4% in September 2011 compared to September 2010. Pending sales were also up 17.5%, and new listings dropped 29.5%. Comparing the previous month of August 2011 with September 2011, closed sales decreased from 1,805 to 1,586 (-12.1%). Pending sales also went down from 2,187 to 1,861 (-14.9%). New listings fell from 2,879 to 2,501 (-13.1%). At the month’s rate of sales, the 10,666 active residential listings would last about 6.7 months.

Sale Prices

Average sale price for September 2011 declined 4.2% compared to September 2010. Median sale price also fell 3.8%. Month to month, comparing August 2011 to September 2011, sale price activity was mixed. Average sale price went down from $271,800 to $268,200 (-1.3%) while median sale price increased from $225,000 to $230,800 (2.6%).

Third Quarter Report

Comparing the third quarter of 2010 with that of 2011, sales activity was up. Closed sales jumped up by 21.5% (4,340 v. 5,275), while pending sales also increased by 21.6% (4,725 v. 5,747). New listings fell 27.6% (11,582 v. 8,380). In the same quarterly comparison, average sale price fell 6.9%, while median sale price dropped 7.5%.

NORTH PORTLAND —-
Previous Month’s Average Sales Price: $222,700.
Year-to-Date Average Sales Price & Appreciation: $221,400, -4.5%.

NORTHEAST PORTLAND —-
Previous Month’s Average Sales Price: $249,200.
Year-to-Date Average Sales Price & Appreciation: $267,800, -5.5%.

SOUTHEAST PORTLAND —-
Previous Month’s Average Sales Price: $216,100.
Year-to-Date Average Sales Price & Appreciation: $214,400, -8.1%.

WEST PORTLAND —-
Previous Month’s Average Sales Price: $399,100.
Year-to-Date Average Sales Price & Appreciation: $392,100, -2.2%.

BEAVERTON —-
Previous Month’s Average Sales Price: $232,100
Year-to-Date Average Sales Price & Appreciation: $212,200, -13.0%.

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People say that “life is full of surprises.” And indeed, last week’s Jobs Report contained several surprises. Read on to find out if they were good or bad…and what they meant for home loan rates.

Overall, the Jobs Report wasn’t great, but it did surprise by being better than anticipated. One thing that wasn’t a surprise was the unemployment rate which held steady at 9.1%. But the headline number came in at 103,000 jobs created, which was better than expectations of 60,000 and even higher than some of the more frothy expectations. In addition, 137,000 jobs were created in the private sector, which offset more government job losses and which was a lot better than the 83,000 private job gains expected.

Another surprise in the report was the significant upward revisions, which added 99,000 jobs to what was previously reported in prior months, and this added to the positive tone of the report. These upward revisions really change a very pessimistic jobs picture to something a bit more optimistic. For instance, last month the Jobs Report showed zero job creations and now that figure has been revised to show 57,000 jobs created. Once again, these aren’t great numbers—but they are better than bad, and they tell us that the economy is not in a recession…at least for now.

So, what did all of this mean for home loan rates? It’s important to remember that when our economy is struggling, our Bond Market usually benefits as investors seek a safe haven for their money. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, our home loan rates are sometimes at their best when our economy is struggling. In a way it makes sense…in times of economic struggle, good home loan rates can help kick start our economy in other areas.

Yet, when good or better than expected economic news hits the wires, like it did with Friday’s Jobs Report, investors often move their money out of Bonds and into Stocks in an attempt to take advantage of these gains. And that’s a big reason why we saw Bonds and home loan rates worsen a bit this week.

As of today (Thursday, October 13th) rates are still great:

Conforming

30 year fixed: 4.125%

15 year fixed: 3.50%

5/1 ARM: 2.875%

7/1 ARM: 3.375%

Government

30 year fixed: 3.75%

5/1 ARM: 3.50%

Jumbo

30 year fixed: 4.875%

5/1 ARM: 3.25%

The most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows.

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Portland Farmers Market is a collection of six vibrant farmers’ markets held in unique urban locations throughout the Portland metro area. While each location has its own personality, all six markets provide a direct connection to the agricultural abundance of our region and serve as gathering places in which to grow, nourish and inspire community.

My favorite is the PSU market, it is the biggest I have been to. It has everything from specialty cheese, fresh fruits and vegetable’s, all kinds of meats, eggs, yummy food and much much more.

Click on the link below for more information on all the farmers markets in Portland

http://www.portlandfarmersmarket.org/index.php/markets

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Prices are down and INTEREST RATES are still at an all time low, but not for long. Experts are forecasting steady up ticks in the Prime Rate, which translates into mortgage rates up to 8.75% in less than 3 years!
Projected Future Prime Rate Values:
Apr 2010—Jun 2010 3.25 Jul 2010—Oct 2010 3.50 Nov 2010—Jan 2011 3.75
Feb 2011—Mar 2011 4.00 Apr 2011—Jun 2011 4.25 Jul 2011—Sep 2011 4.50
Oct 2011—Nov 2011 4.75 Dec 2011—Feb 2012 5.00 Mar 2012—May 2012 5.25 
Jun 2012—Aug 2012 5.50 Sep 2012—Dec 2012 5.75 Jan 2013—Apr 2013 6.00
May 2013—Jul 2013 6.25 Aug 2013—Oct 2013 6.50 Nov 2013—Dec 2013 6.75
Source Data: This Prime Rate forecast has been prepared by Mortgage-X for general illustrative purposes only. The projected future Prime Rate values are calculated by us using the statistically derived relationships between the Prime Rate and the 1-Year Constant Maturity Treasury index (also referred to as the 1-Year Treasury Bill, or the 1-Year Treasury Spot index). Calculations are based on the implied forward Treasury Bill rates derived from the term structures (also known as the Treasury Yield Curve) of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds.

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Multnomah County Recorders Office shows notice of defaults growing at an alarming rate. Another sign Portland’s housing bubble is entering a deflationary period.
Defaults from 2008 - 2009 increased 54.7%

Defaults for Q1 2010 vs Q4 2009 increased 26.7%

YOY defaults for Q1 2009 vs Q1 2010 increased 23.6%

The actual foreclosure rate has yet to catch up to these numbers as the banks have utilized the suspension of FASB 157 (mark to market accounting) to manage their balance sheets. Many a delinquent loan owner is living payment free until the inevitable occurs. Even the main stream media is foreshadowing the inevitable, and Bank of America says it will increase an already high amount of monthly foreclosures by a  600% before the end of 2010.

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PLEASE GIVE ME A CALL IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR IF YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW WOULD LIKE TO SELL OR BUY A HOME!

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BUYERS, Read this quote from the Mortgage Marketing Guide:

“Interesting note that supports our views on the unlikelihood of rates moving much lower - last Friday, Jack Koskinen, interim chief executive of Freddie Mac, said that home loan rates are near the bottom and that any further decreases will be small.  Mr. Koskinen commented on mortgage rates after he attended the meeting between President Obama and the CEO’s of the financial services companies on Capitol Hill.  Perfect opportunity to get the word out to clients who are sitting on the fence waiting for that 4% rate…now is the time to purchase or refinance as rates are at historically low levels, and not likely to move much lower.”

MMG Update - Tuesday, March 31, 2009 10:17am ET   Current Trend Direction: Sideways

Risks favor: Floating  Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond:  $100.62, +12bp

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Portland Designer Leanne Marshall wins Bravo’s reality fashion design show “Project Runway”.  Waves and water were her inspiration for the final runway show.

Link to BRAVO

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Welcome to Experience Moving Forward Portland.  We are looking forward to sharing our expertise on the Portland Metro Real Estate Market. We will share information and articles on specific neighborhoods, for example Rock Creek, Tanasbourne, Aloha, Hillsboro, Beaverton, West Side, East Side, Downtown, and real estate in general. We look forward to answering your questions as well!

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